So you say a 2-2 split is likely which is true at 41% but a 3-1 is more likely at 50%. Would the logic more go the only way I have to make this is if it is a 2-2 split or they mess up and the king and queen fall on each other. A 2-2 split is more likely to happen and thus is the hope you should play for to have a chance at making it?
Also a 5H sacrifice from N/S is not bad you only got 2 off. Losing one trick in each suit.
Clinton and I are in a sense both right. His percentages do identify the likelihood of 2-2 and 1-3 distributions, when the opponents have 4 trumps between them.
However, advice from a bridge-playing statistician says that when you factor in the need to find the singleton or void (for 1-3 and 0-4 distributions) and needed finesse(s), the odds are slightly better than even if you assume a 2-2 distribution - almost 52% she suggests.
This supports the well-known advice to “go for the drop” when opponents have 4 trumps. (All this assumes that you can’t infer any information from the bidding.)
And yes, a 5H bid from NS would probably do well, but bidding it would be very brave!